West Bengal is unlikely to face a direct hit from the developing Cyclone Arnab, but several districts are expected to receive rain and thunderstorms from October 27, according to the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) in Kolkata.
The weather office has forecast heavy rainfall in parts of South Bengal on October 28 and 29, with more districts likely to experience showers later in the week. North Bengal could also see heavy rain from Thursday.
The developing system over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm and subsequently strengthen further as it moves towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
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The RMC has also warned of rough sea conditions and strong winds along the West Bengal coast. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea from Tuesday, October 27, while those already at sea have been asked to return.
When will Cyclone Arnab affect West Bengal?
According to the weather office, the depression over the Bay of Bengal was moving southeast at around 8 kmph, based on the observations cited in its October 25 report.
At 11.30 pm on Saturday, October 24, the system was located approximately 470 km north-northwest of Sri Vijaya Puram in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, 860 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 950 km east-southeast of Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh.
The system was expected to move southwards before turning west-northwestwards over the Bay of Bengal. The forecast indicated that it could develop into a cyclonic storm by Monday morning, October 26, and intensify further over the following days.
The system is expected to approach the Andhra Pradesh coast around October 28. However, the precise track, intensity and timing of landfall remain subject to changes in subsequent forecasts.
While West Bengal is not expected to experience a direct hit, the weather system could influence rainfall and wind conditions across the state.
Which South Bengal districts are likely to receive heavy rain?
The RMC has forecast heavy rainfall in several South Bengal districts as the system develops.
South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore and Jhargram are likely to receive heavy rain on Wednesday and Thursday, October 28 and 29. Purulia and Bankura could also experience heavy rainfall on Thursday.
Kolkata, Howrah and Hooghly are likely to receive scattered rain accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on Wednesday and Thursday.
North 24 Parganas, East Burdwan, West Burdwan, Birbhum, Murshidabad and Nadia could experience similar weather conditions from Wednesday through Saturday.
The forecast suggests that rainfall may extend across several parts of the state, although the intensity and distribution could vary by district.
What is the forecast for North Bengal?
Parts of North Bengal could also experience heavy rainfall as the weather system progresses.
Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar are likely to receive heavy rain from Thursday, October 29, according to the forecast cited in the report.
Other northern districts may experience scattered showers, thunderstorms and lightning.
Residents should follow district-level weather updates, particularly if travelling or planning outdoor activities during the forecast period.
Fishermen warned as rough seas and strong winds are expected
The weather office has warned of deteriorating sea conditions along the West Bengal coast under the influence of the developing system.
Wind speeds along the coast are expected to reach around 35-55 kmph from Tuesday, October 27. The sea is likely to remain rough as the system strengthens over the Bay of Bengal.
Fishermen have been advised to stay away from the sea from Tuesday. Those already out at sea have been asked to return to shore.
The advisory comes as the system is forecast to intensify and move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, potentially affecting marine conditions over a wider area of the Bay of Bengal.
Will temperatures drop in Kolkata?
There is not expected to be a major change in temperatures across West Bengal over the next three days, according to the RMC.
After that period, temperatures could fall by around 2-3 degrees Celsius.
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Kolkata recorded a minimum temperature of 23.4°C on Sunday morning, 0.4 degrees above normal. The city’s maximum temperature on Saturday was 31.2°C, 0.5 degrees below normal.
The developing weather system is expected to bring a change in rainfall and wind conditions across the state in the coming days. Residents are advised to monitor updated forecasts and follow official weather advisories.