Ethiopian government forces and allied militias have regained control of Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region, in a major setback for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)-led opposition alliance.

Reuters reported that three sources confirmed government forces had taken control of the city after the TPLF withdrew.

The group said its regional government would be “temporarily moved out of Mekelle and operate from somewhere else.”

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The tide turns in Tigray

Ethiopian federal forces have seized Tigray's capital, Mekelle, after just over a week of intense fighting, first retaking the city's Alula Aba Nega Airport, then, per government claims, the city itself | X (@GlobalGeoWorld1)
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Ethiopian federal forces have seized Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, after just over a week of intense fighting, first retaking the city’s Alula Aba Nega Airport, then, per government claims, the city itself | X (@GlobalGeoWorld1)

The development marks a sharp reversal in a conflict that escalated less than two weeks ago. The TPLF and six other Ethiopian armed and political groups announced a new alliance on September 20, saying they wanted to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish a transitional administration.

Three days later, on September 23, Tigrayan forces launched a major offensive, seizing airports in Mekelle, Axum, and Shire and pushing into neighboring Amhara and Afar regions.

The government described the move as an “all-out offensive,” while the TPLF said it was fighting a “defensive war.”

A capital, and quite the prize

The Ethiopian military then moved quickly to push the rebels back. By October 2, pro-government fighters said they had captured Milazat, about 20 km from Mekelle.

Banks and shops had shut in the city as residents prepared for possible fighting. On October 3, federal forces were reported to have retaken Alula Aba Nega Airport, roughly 10 km from central Mekelle.

Local residents and journalists also reported seeing TPLF fighters and leaders leaving the city.

Mekelle matters because it is not simply another battlefield. It is the political center of Tigray and the seat of its regional government.

Its capture therefore gives federal forces a significant symbolic and strategic advantage.

The takeover proves to be a major loss for the TPLF, which had launched the latest offensive against the Ethiopian military.

The roots of the crisis

To understand why this is happening again, it is necessary to look back at the previous Tigray war.

Fighting between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal government began in 2020 and continued until a peace agreement was reached in November 2022 through African Union mediation.

That war caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. The Pretoria Agreement ended the large-scale conflict, but major political and territorial disputes were left unresolved.

Those tensions gradually returned. Tigray faced internal political divisions, economic hardship, displacement, and tensions over the post-war settlement.

The TPLF’s new coalition has expanded its list of opponents to Abiy’s government, but the alliance is not necessarily united on every issue.

Some members have competing territorial interests, including over areas contested between Tigray and Amhara.

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The neighbours are involved?

The 2022 peace deal ended the last Tigray war, but unresolved political and territorial disputes have now pushed Ethiopia back towards conflict | X (@criticalthreats)
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The 2022 peace deal ended the last Tigray war, but unresolved political and territorial disputes have now pushed Ethiopia back towards conflict | X (@criticalthreats)

The crisis is also becoming a regional concern. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt of supporting the opposition alliance. Those countries have denied the accusations.

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated rapidly, with Ethiopia closing its embassy in Asmara and Eritrea severing diplomatic ties.

The African Union has urged the countries involved to exercise restraint.

The immediate military picture has shifted in favor of Addis Ababa, with federal forces and allied fighters controlling Mekelle. But the wider conflict remains unresolved.

Information from the ground is also difficult to verify because media access is restricted and communications blackouts have affected Tigray.